Hakimullah Mehsud died in Sukkur en route to Karachi. No, he expired in some indeterminate town in Waziristan. Or he may have been instantaneously killed in a drone attack. Malik Noor Jamal aka Maulana Toofan (with a name like that he should have been Gabbar Singh’s sidekick in Sholay) is the new leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Actually, he may just be the acting head until a more suitable candidate is chosen. But only if Hakimullah is actually dead.

Decoding the Taliban puzzle is harder than figuring out what’s happening on Lost.

With so much confusion surrounding recent events, analysing what’s going to happen next necessarily requires some conjecture. Let us assume then that Hakimullah really is dead and that Toofan will be the new leader of the TTP. This could signal a change of strategy on the part of the Taliban. Where Hakimullah, with his flowing locks and Humvee, was a  show-off in the Abdullah Mehsud mould, Toofan, despite his flamboyant moniker, is likely to be more circumspect. Being based in Orakzai Agency, he should prefer holding on to that and other territories in the tribal areas rather than mounting daring attacks in major cities — the hallmark of Hakimullah’s tenure.

Installing Toofan as leader may also lead to fissures within the TTP. The Mehsud tribe sees the TTP as its property, with the leadership post an inheritance that cannot leave the tribe. If Hakimullah indeed is dead, a shura may choose to appoint another Mehsud to take the seat that is temporarily being warmed by Toofan. There is no knowing how Toofan would react to that.

What is likely is that the leadership of the TTP will become increasingly incompetent at strategy as more of its leaders are killed and it is forced to choose from second-raters. By no means does this portend an end to terrorism in the country. But it does give the army the upper hand as it takes the fight to the Taliban.