Most analysts had assumed that the killing of Baitullah Mehsud and the subsequent confusion over the leadership of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTPO would lead to a “phony war” as terrorist attacks subsided and the military retook control of Swat and Waziristan. At the very least, it was expected that the cities would be spared as battle raged in the tribal areas. The last week has proved us all wrong.

In all, there were five separate attacks today — three in Lahore, one in Kohat and one in Peshawar. In Lahore, two of the targets — the FIA building and police training academy in Manawan — had previously been attacked by the Taliban.

The audacity of the simultaneous attacks gives us a good indication of how Hakimullah Mehsud intends to operate. In the September issue ofNewsline, Rahimullah Yousufzai had this to say about the new TTP leader:

The 29-year-old commander has the reputation of a ruthless and fearless militant. He is also known to be an emotional man who relishes media coverage. He is also known to have a fancy for weapons and vehicles…Pakistan will have to gear up for a wave of suicide bombings ordered by Hakimullah in the coming weeks and months.

Yousufzai’s prediction was spot-on and gives a good explanation for the surge in terrorist attacks this week. It is believed that Baitullah Mehsud saw Afghanistan and the NATO forces as the more important battlefield and ordered attacks in Pakistan only in response to what he saw as provocations by the government and army.

Hakimullah, in keeping with what is known about him, has adopted an even more confrontational role and is taking the war to Pakistan in a way that his predecessor didn’t. In the short term, this is terrible news for Pakistan as there will be further audacious attacks and much spilled blood.

But, if the army and government are serious about finishing off the Taliban, there is also an opportunity. Under Hakimullah’s leadership there is every chance that the TTP will spread itself too thin and concentrate more on headline-grabbing attacks than consolidating its hold in Waziristan.

Rumours over the past few weeks have hinted at a coming operation in Waziristan. Hakimullah Mehsud overplaying his hand may not only have made the use of military force a certainty, it may also have lowered the odds of success.