The Champions Trophy kicks off tomorrow with hosts South Africa facing Sri Lanka. Since this is at two weeks a relatively short tournament, at least by cricket’s standards, handicapping the teams is a particularly chancy exercise. With that caveat out of the way, let’s have some fun and guess who’s going to lift what feels like at least the fifth major tournament of the year.

Group A

Australia

How do you bet against the team that has won the last three World Cups? Australia is clearly in decline, but decline for them means beating England 6-1 in an ODI series instead of making a clean sweep of it. This is a team, with the exception of Ricky Ponting, devoid of superstars, but all-rounders like Shane Watson and Cameron White give Australia plenty of options should their specialist players misfire. This isn’t Australia’s most talented team; heck it isn’t even the most talented team in the tournament, but Australia’s mental toughness should give them the trophy.

India

The Indians are a bit like the US army. They score a lot of decisive early victories but the longer they hang around, the less likely they are to win. In the 21 finals India have played in multi-national ODI tournaments since 2000, they have won on only four occasions. Still, even in the absence of Virender Sehwag, India have the deepest and strongest batting line-up. For further proof that India is not as brittle as it once was, captain Maninder Singh Dhoni can point out that of the four finals victories, three have come since 2008.

Pakistan

Is there any point in even predicting what Pakistan will do? They shouldn’t make the semi finals of the Champions Trophy, but then they shouldn’t have reached the semis of the T20 World Cup either. Pakistan will need to beat either India or Australia to make it to the final four, and their record against the former in major competitions and the latter in all forms of cricket is abysmal. We can dream that Umar Gul will reproduce his swinging yorkers, Mohammed Yousuf will steady the middle order and Afridi will make quick-fire runs at the end. Asking for two miracles in a year, however, is a bit greedy.

West Indies

Beating of stiff competition from UAE in 1996 and Scotland in 1999, the West Indies have managed to field the worst side in ODI history. The pay dispute that has caused all of the Windies’ top players to pull out doesn’t seem to be nearing a resolution. The West Indies will lose all their matches, and they will lose them decisively. I would bet the farm on that.

Group B

South Africa

South Africa have often been tagged as favourites but they have never followed through with a tournament victory. Their losses are often bizarre — just think back to the run out in the 1999 World Cup or their mathematical ineptitude in 2003 — and always spectacular. The Saffers do have an exceptionally strong team brimming with confidence and Dale Steyn is the best fast bowler in the world right now (which admittedly isn’t saying much). It will be a treat to see South Africa efficiently demolish all their opponents before losing in the semis, perhaps by running one short on the final delivery of a match with only two runs needed for victory.

Sri Lanka

In Sanath Jayasuria, Tilkaratne Dilshan, Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sanggakara, Sri Lanka have the best top four in the tournament. In Murali and Ajantha Mendis, they have the best spinners. Lasith Malinga is the best death bowler in the world after Umar Gul. All of this combined should lead to a place in the final, and maybe even a victory if they can hold their nerve against the Aussies.

England

I doubt even the English believe they can reach the semi finals of the Champions Trophy, let alone win it. They were roundly thrashed by Australia and they know they couldn’t have done any better. There isn’t a single batsmen in the English line-up who can regularly hit sixes, and in modern cricket that is a liability no team can afford. If Kevin Pieterson and Andrew Flintoff were available, England might have pulled off an upset or two. Now they would be content just to win a single match.

New Zealand

The Kiwis, conventional wisdom says, have always played beyond their talent. You always feel like they should be minnows but somehow seem to make semis regularly without ever threatening to win. For the last couple of years, New Zealand have relied too heavily on captain Daniel Vettori, both as a batsman and spinner. The return of Shane Bond from the ICL should ease some of their bowling worries. Unlike England, New Zealand won’t capitulate but they won’t win the tournament either.