October 5, 2009

The International Republican Institute’s Pakistan survey, which was released last week, is further proof that it impossible to pigeonhole the country. It is always unwise to paint with a broad stroke but that seems a perfectly acceptable method for reportage on Pakistan.

The IRI survey finds that the Taliban have lower favourability ratings than all previous IRI polls but that 87% of Pakistanis believe that Saudi Arabia is the country’s strongest ally, 78 percentage points higher than second-placed China. To most foreign observers, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Pakistan consists of nothing more than financial assistance to the anti-Soviet jihadis. This opinion poll, and the cover story in next month’s Newsline which takes a comprehensive look at the Saudi influence in Pakistan, show the depth and complexity of the two countries’ relations.

Similarly, Pakistan is not the hotbed of anti-India sentiment that you read about. Nor is it true that the Indo-Pak issue is one that exists solely in the minds of the governing class. The favourability/unfavourability of Pakistan’s view of India  is roughly equal, which means Pakistan’s opinion of India has gone down slightly since the last IRI poll, but  Pakistan is hardly ready to go to war with its neighbour.

And while everyone will go on about how unpopular the Taliban is, for the long run it is very disturbing that 86% of the respondents believe that religion should play a role in politics.

Twenty-two percent of respondents believe that the internet is a credible source of information while only 9% feel it is not credible (the rest don’t have a view; probably because they don’t have internet). So you should believe and follow every thing I write as Pakistan has judged it to be credible.

It is also interesting that the Gilani government gets a 62% favourability rating while Zardari personally has a rating of  21%. This shows that the people aren’t necessarily dissatisfied with the performance of the government; it’s just that something (everything?) about Zardari rubs them the wrong way.

And while the army remains an extremely unpopular institution, it is striking that 75% of the country still believes that the army should be able to take over in an emergency. Recall the support Musharraf’s coup received in 1999 because of the corruption of the Nawaz Sharif regime. Do such numbers portend a similar coup in the not-too-distant future?

Despite the above statistic, 75% of Pakistanis would prefer a unstable, insecure Pakistan that is democratic to a stable and prosperous Pakistan that is a dictatorship. Are we allowed to suggest that Pakistan might suffer from bi-polar disorder?

In the favourability ratings of political personalities, the irrelevance of the leaders of ethnic parties outside their areas of influence is highlighted. Asfandyar Wali has a favourability rating of 4%; Altaf Hussain 5%. Only various militants are less popular than them. It is somewhat surprising that Qazi Hussain Ahmed is included in the list and not his Jamaat-e-Islami successor Munawar Hasan.

Nadir Hassan is a Pakistan-based journalist and assistant editor at Newsline.