Now that it looks like the notorious National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) is not going to be passed by — or even presented in — the National Assembly, many have been quick to predict the end of the Zardari Presidency. While this is no doubt a setback for Zardari, he is not in any danger of losing his post or ending up in jail since article 148 of the Constitution protects the president from facing prosecution on criminal charges.

Most of the PPP leadership need not worry either. Only those who were specifically granted amnesty under the NRO — i.e. those whose cases were still pending or whose sentences were commuted after Musharraf introduced the ordinance — are at risk of facing trial or prison sentences. While the complete list of NRO beneficiaries has never been released, it is believed that it includes Interior Minister Rehman Malik and close Zardari ally Salman Farooqi. Outside of the PPP, it has been rumoured that JUI-F head and erstwhile coalition member Fazlur Rehman and former prime minister Zafrullah Jamali are among those who availed the benefits of the NRO.

But if Zardari so chooses, he can make all their problems vanish in an instant. Under the constitution, the president has the absolute right to issue pardons. Even when the Supreme Court challenged the NRO, it did not dispute that Musharraf could pardon whomever he chose; it was his unconstitutional sacking of the court that prompted the decision.

In recent months, Zardari has seen a weakening of his power, from having to restore the judiciary to the furor over the Kerry-Lugar Bill, because of public opinion. In this instance, too, he may have to appease his critics and sacrifice some of his closest allies in the government. Other than that, though, the controversy over the NRO will seem like so much hot air.