The militants are striking back, just when most people in Peshawar, elsewhere in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the rest of the country were beginning to believe that they had been dealt a decisive blow by the ongoing military operation.

The relative calm turned out to be the proverbial lull as suicide bombers struck in Peshawar, Lower Dir and Kohat. The target killings of several pro-government political and social activists in Swat sent a wave of shock and fear among the Swati people.

It was widely felt that the military had done well in certain places such as Swat and South Waziristan, defeating and evicting the militants from their strongholds. However, there seemed to be a consensus that the job at hand was half-finished and that a lot more needed to be done, not only militarily but also politically, to curb militancy.

Another worrying development was the re-emergence of some dreaded commanders of the outlawed Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who had been declared dead or missing in action. One by one, militant commanders Maulana Faqir Mohammad, Maulana Fazlullah, Qari Hussain and Qari Ziaur Rahman phoned journalists to deny reports that they had been killed. The fact that they were alive and still in business was a grim reminder that militancy and terrorism would continue to haunt the country for quite some time.

The Frontier Corps had claimed that Faqir Mohammad, deputy leader of the TTP and its top commander for Bajaur Agency, was killed along with Ziaur Rahman, also from Bajaur, and Omar Rahman, alias Fateh, the leading Taliban commander for Swat, in a bombing raid in March 2010 by fighter jets and gunship helicopters in Mohmand Agency. It later turned out that both Faqir Mohammad and Ziaur Rahman were alive. Reporters have not heard from Omar Rahman and anti-militant circles in his native Swat were sure that he had been killed. However, he did not give interviews to the press even when he was the Taliban’s chief commander in Swat and was at the peak of his power. The truth is that there is still no conclusive evidence that he is dead.

Qari Hussain, a cousin of TTP head Hakimullah Mehsud and master-trainer of suicide bombers, has proved to be a great survivor. He was declared dead a number of times and emerged alive every time, much to the embarrassment of civil and military officials. Once more, there were reports that he may have died in a US drone attack or during the Pakistan Army’s military operations. The young TTP commander is, however, alive and apparently still in business, training suicide bombers and sending them out on missions.

Hakimullah Mehsud. Photo: AFP

A lot of interest was created by recent news regarding the fate of Hakimullah Mehsud. For the first time in months, a military official conceded that he was alive. The senior, unnamed operative of Pakistan’s premier spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), told the British newspaper Guardian that Hakimullah was injured in the US drone attack in early January 2010, in South Waziristan, but has since recovered. This must be embarrassing for federal interior minister Rehman Malik and the civil and security officials who claimed that Hakimullah was killed in the drone attack. Though the Pakistan Army and the US government never officially confirmed Hakimullah’s death, they didn’t contradict the reports, and added to the uncertainty, saying that reports of Hakimullah’s death were being verified. More than three months after the incident, they haven’t finished their investigation.

A day after the statement by the ISI official that Hakimullah was alive, TTP spokesman Azam Tariq also broke his silence to claim that the stance that the top commander had survived the US drone attack had been vindicated. It seemed that the news about Hakimullah being alive reinvigorated the Taliban militants, many of whom were becoming demoralised after suffering setbacks due to the sustained military operations in almost all the tribal areas and certain districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

It is now obvious that the TTP has changed its strategy regarding its interaction with the media. Hakimullah and other TTP commanders earlier used to invite reporters to press conferences in their tribal strongholds. They were eager to produce video tapes to refute government claims that they have been killed. Although Hakimullah did speak to reporters over the telephone to deny his death after the January 14 drone attack on his hideout in South Waziristan, he has refrained — if he is alive — from contacting the media again or releasing a video, despite being challenged by Rehman Malik and others to do so.

Hakimullah was fond of publicity and relished being filmed firing guns, driving a snatched Humvee in the Khyber Agency and sitting with the Jordanian suicide bomber Dr Humam Khalil al-Balawi who later attacked the CIA station in Khost. It seems the TTP has learnt its lessons from the leaders of Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, who stay away from the limelight, use phones sparingly and curb the temptation to grant media interviews. This has enabled most of the Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders to survive and avoid capture.

It is true that certain important TTP commanders, particularly in Swat and the rest of Malakand division, have been captured or killed. The provincial government had announced a monetary reward for the capture of the top 21 Taliban commanders in Swat. The head-money for the Swat Taliban leader, Maulana Fazlullah, was Rs 50 million while it was Rs 10 million each for the other 20 wanted militant commanders. Some of them, including Sher Mohammad Qasab, Bakht Farzand and Maulana Mohammad Alam Binori, alias Maulana Khalil, have been killed by the security forces. Claims were also made about the death of Swat Taliban deputy leader Maulana Shah Dauran, but there has been no hard evidence to prove this. The Swat Taliban leaders, Muslim Khan, Mahmood Khan, Bashir Ahmad and Liaqat are currently in government custody.

However, other important Swat Taliban commanders, besides Fazlullah, are still at large, including Sirajuddin, Ibne Amin, Qari Mushtaq, Shahinshah and Akbar Hussain. Fazlullah, in his early 30s, is the son-in-law of Tanzim Nifaz Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM) founder Maulana Sufi Mohammad, who has been held at the central prison in Peshawar for several months.

Fazlullah’s whereabouts have been a matter of speculation. Though Fazlullah claimed after his escape from Swat that he had crossed over to Afghanistan, it is believed he could be in one of the tribal areas, most likely in Mohmand or Orakzai. Many Swati Taliban had first taken refuge in Bajaur Agency, but military action against the militants in the Mamond and Charmang areas has forced them to shift to Mohmand Agency and other tribal areas.

In the Lower Dir district, Taliban commander Qari Shahid was captured, but the militants’ chief, Hafizullah, is at large and active, sponsoring suicide bombings in the district headquarters town, Timergara. In Bajaur Agency, the TTP spokesman and commander Maulvi Omar was apprehended while moving to the adjoining Mohmand Agency.

The biggest loss for the TTP was the death of its founder Baitullah Mehsud in a US drone attack in South Waziristan last year. However, the TTP stayed intact after his death under his successor Hakimullah. The recent reports that Hakimullah was alive would mean that the TTP despite suffering losses remains a threat to the state. The fact that several TTP commanders are alive despite claims by the government and security forces also showed the failure of the intelligence agencies in seeking correct information.

Inadequate intelligence caused 63 civilian deaths in Sra Vella village populated by the generally pro-government Kukikhel Afridi tribe in the remote Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency when Pakistan Air Force fighter jets first bombed the house of three young men serving in the security forces and then attacked rescuers digging out the dead and the injured. It was the largest toll of innocent civilians in military action being conducted by Pakistan’s security forces in the tribal areas since 2003-2004 and could prove instrumental in turning sections of pro-government tribes such as the Kukikhel Afridis against the government. The military initially claimed that 35 militants had been killed in the air strikes but soon afterwards took refuge in silence as the real story emerged. The political administration in Khyber Agency was tasked to do damage control, pacify the tribe and pay compensation to the bereaved families. Finally, Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani admitted the catastrophic error, apologised to the tribesmen and sanctioned Rs 20 million as cash compensation for the dead and injured persons.

Fear returned to places like Peshawar, Swat, Kohat and North Waziristan as suicide bombers struck repeatedly in recent weeks. The bombing of an ANP rally celebrating the renaming of the NWFP as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Timergara in Lower Dir district in March 2010 killed almost 50 party workers. On the same day, the US Consulate was attacked in a spectacular suicide mission carried out by three to five bombers, but they were unable to breach the tight security due to the alertness and courage of the guards.

Then 41 people were killed in two bomb explosions on April 17 at a registration centre for displaced people at Katcha Pakha town near Kohat city. This incident added a new dimension to the acts of terror in Pakistan and was the first time that displaced people waiting for registration and relief supplies at a distribution centre were targeted. As the registration centre attacked in Katcha Pakha area catered to Shias displaced from Orakzai Agency, it was clear that the attack had a sectarian bias. The Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, part of the so-called Punjabi Taliban and known for its hatred towards Shias later claimed responsibility for the twin bombings.

Peshawar suffered again when a teenaged suicide bomber struck in the historic Qissa Khwani bazaar, killing 25 people. It was speculated that a police officer, Gulfat Hussain, being a Shia, was the target of this attack, but most of those killed were activists of the Jamaat-i-Islami who were leaving the bazaar after holding a protest meeting against loadshedding. The Jamaat-i-Islami, however, blamed the US private security firm, Blackwater, for this and other terrorist attacks and refused to condemn the Taliban militants. The TTP also denied its involvement in the attack and it too blamed Blackwater for the bombing. The TTP, it may be added, never claims responsibility for any bombing that kills civilians.

The common people were left wondering as to who was behind the fresh wave of bombings. In almost all cases though, the hand of the militants was visible in these terrorist attacks: it was their retaliation against the military action now underway in Orakzai Agency, once the nerve-centre of the TTP, and other tribal areas. The bombings quickly became a matter of concern as it was obvious that the battle to curb militancy and extremism would take years. And with US-led NATO forces failing to defeat the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan, the prospects of Pakistan achieving decisive victory in a short period of time against its homegrown militants aren’t looking very good.